Wingecarribee Local Council Elections

Its that time again, folks - your chance to determine the local political team who will run the bit of the world closest to you.

Alternatively, yes, unless you turn up and get your name ticked off by the Electoral Commission representatives, you might incur a fine. Yes, voting is compulsory.

It prefer to think of it as a privilege, and an opportunity to shape the future.

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Here is the Council Election website page - with appropriate onward links.
http://www.wsc.nsw.gov.au/council/council-election-2012

• You can verify your enrolment there too.

Here are the Candidates, as listed officially by the NSW Electoral Commission.
http://candidates.elections.nsw.gov.au/default.aspx 

Council Election - Candidates
and Polling Places
Go here to download the original document
which will be easier to read.

Council Election - Candidates
and Polling Places

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Having got that formal stuff out of the way, let me now look at the list of dunces, dead-heads and self-serving people who make up most of the names of people who are standing for "FAME AND POWER" (sorry - standing for Election to Council). 

I do not propose to tell anyone who to vote for, but I will suggest a few people for whom I would definitely NOT VOTE.

Charlie Johns
Once, seemingly the Right Hand Man of Nick Campbell-Jones
until they fell out (under mysterious circumstances).
Anyone not good enough to be a "mate"
of Nick C-J is to be avoided, I reckon.
He also has mysterious "history" of debts to Council,
which were supposedly waived in mysterious circumstances.
The fact that he has been on the Edge of Politics in the Shire
for such a long time,
and is an incessant writer of Letters to the Editor,
and is still so keen to get elected is a warning light to me.

He certainly will not get my vote.

Do you remember the scandal of the stupid investment in the Lehman Brothers "Federation Notes" (better known as Collateralised Debt Obligations).

• "It was a bitter lesson for Wingecarribee, a shire in the Southern Highlands. Not only had it invested ratepayers' funds in a complex and risky financial product, it had sold at a very bad time." (Sourced from that SMH Business Day link above)
  In other words, we bought badly and sold badly. Who is responsible for that?
  Seemingly no-one. Certainly no Councillors have ever owned up to getting kick-backs, or commissions, but given the way that the investment industry works, almost certainly mates of mates did. No names are available. Such a pity the original meeting was never minuted.
• Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/dante-notes-led-to-a-financial-inferno-20110222-1b42w.html#ixzz25ZuZOvye

So I would not vote for anyone associated with that famously "un-minuted" Finance Committee meeting (the one which got us into the mess in the first place) or the decision to bail out of the litigation process (which other Councils were successful in pursuing).

Here are some comments from a recent Meet the Candidates forum held in Bowral on August 28 put up by Travis Holland on a Highlands Votes website: Take these comments as you will.
http://www.highlandsvotes.com/2012/08/meet-the-candidates-long-post/

David Stranger was previously elected on the Liberal Party ticket in the shadow of Juliet Arkright. He has since left the Liberal Party ticket, and has formed his own team Group B. Real Estate Agents always make dubious candidates for Council, in my opinion. The fact that he is apparently a turn-coat merely reinforces my suspicions.

Duncan Gair cannot seem to get the desire for power out of his blood. He as been on Council for many terms, some as Mayor. He is standing again, after previously indicating he would not stand again for Council.

• Why, Duncan?
• “You look back and think, at the end of the day, it may not have happened if you weren’t there.”
• Looking back at the succession of bad decisions by the Wingecarribee Council, all I can say is that statement is a "double-edged sword", Duncan.

The Just Fix It team is headed by Ian Scandrett. He still wears as a badge of honour his time in the Balmain City Council. If you remember the TV program "Rats in the Ranks" you might not think that's such a good thing to boast about. But his team is proposing an "Energy Saving Scheme" which sounds just like a Ponzi Scheme, to me, from what I have heard about it. Council is being "sold the idea", but Council will not actually get any earnings - the proponents of the scheme, however, might get some benefits. The details are sketchy in my mind, but I know enough people with experience in financial markets - who are wary of this scheme - that I simply flag it as a "warning" to others.

Graham McLaughlin is heading up the Labor Team. I know Graham, and I admire his sense of humour and his musicality. But those factors do not outweigh, for me, his support for Boral and the expansion of the Berrima Colliery. It already poses a threat to the integrity of the local Aquifers over at Medway and High Range and Joadja. It is also leaking polluted water directly into the main feeder river of Lake Burrogorang (Sydney's primary Water Supply reservoir). Sorry Graham.

Edit: I have received this additional information: " ‘The Coalition Of Change’ group - Stranger, Turland and Andrews are running together with management from Nick Campbell-Jones. Back to the future for his Mega Leisure centre project if they get elected."
So I have been told, from a source I trust.

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So, who can I safely vote for, in this coming local Government Election?

Well, as far as I know The Greens will not do anything as stupid as their Sydney colleagues did prior to the NSW State Election (where they tried to impose bans on companies with economic contact with Israel). That cost them votes in Sydney and I assume that Jim Clark and Maree Byrne will not make the same mistake their Sydney colleagues did. I know both these people - only vaguely, but over a few years, now. But I do sincerely trust their Environmental credentials.

Larry Whipper is a local Robertson resident, and has been the strongest supporter on Council of the Southern Highlands Coal Action Group in its opposition to Hume Coal and also Leichhardt Resources, (a related company which controls the Coal Seam Gas licence over most of the Shire). Shoo Cockatoo's latest bulletin sings Larry's praises.
Larry's Team Website is here

Jim Mauger is standing as an independent. He has always been "independent" anyway, which is why nobody else on Council likes him much, but that is why I do like him. In a strange way, local interests, self-interest almost, can be a great predictor of what someone is likely to do when it comes to voting on important decisions. Big Jim will back Big Jim always and Robertson a close second (if not first, on occasions) That will do me.

Juliet Arkwright is being harassed by the Liberal Party machine men, which straight away wins my sympathy vote. She must have done something worthwhile to get those Big End of Town characters off-side. Besides, she lives in Burrawang and does her shopping in Robertson, so that a definite plus in my view.

Bid Bitar Bye-Bye!

Today's  Crikey says: "Bitar's reign of mayhem comes to an end too late for NSW and Fed Labor" 

Ain't that the truth.

Bye Bye Bitter Bitar (Source ALP website)

Today's SMH reports this: ''I am extremely optimistic about the Party's future and absolutely confident that the Government under Prime Minister Gillard will go from strength to strength in the coming months and be in a strong position for a decisive win at the next election,'' he said in a statement today." Read more here:


Now all we have to do is get rid of Mark Arbib. 

For that we will probably need the permission of his "controllers" over at Moonah Place, Yarralumla, ACT 2600. But history shows once he has outlived his usefulness, as a "protected source" he will be discarded.

Well, not all, but that's be a great start to bringing the Labor Party back to its true beliefs and principles and values.

Ben Chifley

"I try to think of the Labour movement, not as putting an extra sixpence into somebody's pocket, or making somebody Prime Minister or Premier, but as a movement bringing something better to the people, better standards of living, greater happiness to the mass of the people. We have a great objective - the light on the hill - which we aim to reach by working for the betterment of mankind not only here but anywhere we may give a helping hand". Source: Chifley Research Centre


Well, that is unless we can dig up Ben Chifley - from his grave in Bathurst?

• "If an idea is worth fighting for, no matter the penalty, fight for the right, and truth and justice will prevail." 

That's my favourite quote from Ben Chifley.

Kristina Keneally ducks for cover

Well, well, well. Kristina Keneally has ducked for cover. But she might just have given away her last vestiges of power and position - just when she needs them.

She has called on the Governor to Prorogue the NSW Parliament.

On my reading - and I stress I am NOT a Constitutional Lawyer - that means Kristina Keneally is now the Caretaker Premier.

• "The Caretaker Period
• The formal period during which the caretaker conventions operate dates from the dissolution of the Legislative Assembly until the election result is clear, or, in the event of a change of Government, until the new Government is appointed."
• Source: http://www.hawkerbritton.com/hawker-britton-media/public-affairs/nsw-government-caretaker-conventions.htm

In keeping with the style of this Labor Government, I am fully confident that they will ignore the Caretaker Conventions:

• about NOT making major appointments, 
• NOT making major Policy Announcements

As Richard Farmer put it in Crikey today:

• "Just when you might have thought, with the holidays looming, that things could not get worse with the New South Wales government, along comes a decision to try and muzzle a Legislative Council committee enquiring into the circumstances of the late-night signing of agreements to raise billions from electricity assets.
• "All this ham-fisted attempt to avoid public scrutiny will do is further reinforce the appalling reputation of this state Labor government."

This Blog pledges to monitor the actions and announcements of Kristina Keneally and her Ministers over the next 3 months until the Election on 26 March 2011 to note any and all breaches of convention, especially gross breaches which might call into question the legality of new appointments and the binding nature of "commitments made".

For what Kristina Keneally has effectively done is reduce her power from being Premier of NSW to being a candidate for re-election. So the most she can do (legally) from now on, is make "election promises". 

In my opinion, she has no idea of the full implications of what she has done.

Greens statement re Agreement with Labor Party.

I have just received this statement from Senator Bob Brown, Leader of the Australian Greens. It is self-explanatory.

Dear Denis,

On Election Day, more than one in ten Australians voted for the Greens. Each and every vote for the Greens was powerful and here's why:

Yesterday, on behalf of the Australian Greens, I signed an agreement with Prime Minister Julia Gillard to work with the Australian Labor Party to ensure stability if it is returned to Government.

(ABC News: Damien Larkins)

The Labor party will work with the Greens to improve Parliamentary processes, like making sure private member's bills are voted on and properly debated. This means important Greens bills to introduce equal marriage, end offshore processing of asylum seekers, or to abolish junk food advertising during children's TV viewing hours can't be swept under the carpet by the Labor and Liberal parties.

For the first time, the Greens will be able to submit policies to Treasury for costing.

The Labor Party will also work with the Greens on a range of issues including:

• better dental health funding,
• truth in political advertising,
• a referendum to recognise Indigenous Australians in the constitution, and
• a new Climate Change Committee to work towards a price on carbon.

In return, the Greens will ensure supply and oppose motions of no-confidence in the Labor Government from other parties.

You can read the full agreement here.

It is the responsibility of all newly elected Parliamentarians to deliver stable, productive Government. That is the Greens' primary aim in the agreement signed yesterday.

Regardless of which party forms Government, the Greens in the balance of power in the Senate and our newly-elected Lower House MP Adam Bandt remain the voters' backstop for accountability, scrutiny and progressive policies in our national Parliament. The Greens have always been your voice in the halls of Parliament and that voice has been strengthened thanks to the work of tens of thousands of supporters like you.

The agreement is not a coalition with Labor, but is a constructive contribution toward stable government.

We will continue to work to propose innovative new ideas in Parliament and improve the legislation of whoever is in Government.

Yours sincerely,


Bob Brown

If you received this from a friend and want to sign up to campaign emails from the Australian Greens click here.

Authorised by Derek Schild, 8-10 Hobart Place. Canberra
www.greens.org.au

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ref: 137485

ALP Blame Game has started - too late!

The knives are out for Karl Bitar and Mark Arbib - NSW-based Labor Party powerbrokers.

Karl Bitar - ALP National Secretary.

To me, as something of an outsider in the murky world of Labor Politics, all I can say is:

1. It isn't surprising
2. Its too late!

Mark Arbib
Senator and NSW "backroom boy".

These people have presided over a Labor Party machine which has selected candidates who either are "part of the club" - their own preferred factional allies; and they have also persuaded the leaders to only speak about things which are favourable to big business.

In that latter case, I give you the example of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. When Kevin Rudd abandoned his plan to address the "greatest moral challenge facing our generation" he lost all credibility with persons concerned about the environment.

What did Labor believe in?

1. Being soft on the Mining Industry.

Why?

1. Because of a string of Labor seats in Illawarra and the Hunter regions.

But the cost of not believing in anything is now being counted (and will be for several weeks). If the increased Green vote had stayed with Labor, they would not be in this position.

The Labor Party's "experts" - the guys who run the party's private polling, and feed that information to the Leadership, no longer believe in Ben Chifley's "light on the hill". The True Believers have long since left the building.

Morris Iemma, who was dumped because of back-room manoeuvering by Karl Bitar, is now calling for Bitar to resign. Hardly surprising.

Picture: Dean Marzolla Source: The Daily Telegraph

This is what the Daily Telegraph ( a truly awful paper, by the way) says today: "FORMER NSW Labor premier Morris Iemma publicly called for Labor's party boss Karl Bitar to be sacked following what he claimed was the most disastrous campaign in the party's history.

He also called for factional boss and powerbroker Senator Mark Arbib to be dumped, claiming the pair had effectively destroyed the Labor Party."
Source: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/morris-iemmas-call-for-karl-bitar-end/story-fn5zm695-1225908580928

Mr Iemma lost his position as NSW Premier because these two guys shifted their support away from him. So, in fairness, it ought be recorded that Iemma has some scores to settle with them both.

I do not.
I have been a Labor voter for many years, and I personally know a number of senior Labor Party people (as one tends to do if you have lived in Canberra most of of your life, as I have done).

I have been going on for ages about the loss of true Labor Party values.
Nobody has listened to me - naturally enough.

Will they listen to the voice of the Australian People?
That's doubtful.

The late edition of the Sydney Morning Herald has now (belatedly) joined in with the story.
"Calls for Bitar's head after 'inept' campaign"

TONY ABBOTT IS RIGHT

OK the heading is satirical.

There is a hot new website (launched by the Labor Party of course) where you can design you're own Tony Abbott poster.

This is mine:If you want to try your own hand, go to:

http://www.tonyabbottisright.com/createposter.aspx

Our Prime Minister is not a Sheila and not a "Ranga"

Our new Prime Minister is a person, and a female person - to boot.

She ought not be characterised as a "sheila" and not as a "ranga".

I will leave my original post there, so you can see how easily the average Aussie bloke can slip into silly errors.
It was not meant to be offensive, and I apologise that it was.

***** ***** *****

A week is a long time in Politics. (attributed to British PM Harold Wilson, circa 1964)

Too true.

In Kevin Rudd's case, a day and a half was too long. Without support, he wilted in the sun, like a cut lettuce. He was not even prepared to call for a show of hands in Caucus.

Some say this was to limit damage to the Party. Maybe. But it shows he was not made of the same stuff as Paul Keating was.

I sent this message to my friend Leo, in Canada on Tuesday.

• Hi Leo
  This is the most imaginative Ad I have seen from the Liberals in ages.
  http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/06/22/olemon/?source=cmailer
  Kevin's election slogan nick-name in 2007 was "Kevin 07"
  Shame it is "resonating with the public" because it might be quite effective in an election year.
  Don't be misled, however, the bastards behind this are still the same bastards they always were, under John Howard.
  Forget ethics, morality, etc.

  But credit where credit is due - to the Advertising agency.

Today I have had to update Leo with the new developments (the selection of Julia Gillard by the ALP caucus as Prime Minister).

• Hi Leo
  That "lemon" Ad I sent you has had a remarkable effect.
  It only ran for a few days, and guess what? The Labor Party back-room boys shat themselves.
  We now have our (former ) Deputy PM, a woman, and a "ranga" - a red-head to boot, as Prime Minister designate. Likely to be sworn in today. http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard--to-become-australias-first-female-prime-minister-as-rudd-stands-aside-20100624-yzvw.html
  Amazing stuff. It remains to be seen if the strategy will work.
  CAUTION: LANGUAGE WARNING ON THE "URBAN DICTIONARY" LINK.
• For the Urban dictionary definition of "ranga" look here. It is amazingly frank. Be prepared to laugh a bit. Aussie humour at its best (worst).
  
  

***** ***** *****
A somewhat quizzical look on Julia's face - matching the story of
an unkind attack on her character by Senator Bill Heffernan.
She is made of sterner stuff than Bill Heffernan counted upon.

Photo: Penny Stephens, courtesy of "The Age" May 2, 2007

For a more restrained and balanced view of today's events (well, a self-professed feminist view, anyway) visit my friend Brigid's Blog "The Network".



Well, I consider myself to have been rebuked (indirectly) by Brigid in her latest posting, objecting to the use of the term "ranga".
Fair enough.

***** ***** *****

Post Script:
When I met Brigid she did not appear to have red hair, and so I was not anticipating causing her offence.
However, offence is obviously taken by not just her, but all (or any of) our red-haired colleagues.
Someone ought start stereotyping us blond-haired, blue eyed, over-weight blokes - then I might know to be more careful with my wording..

Wingecarribee Shire Council election - a business dream ticket

The NSW Electoral Commission has not yet declared the results of the recent Wingecarribee Shire Council Election. The following comments are my own interpretation of the likely results.

In the 65th round of counting (recounts) Geraldine Turner (leader of the "Save the Highlands" team) was excluded. She appears to have been the last Candidate to be excluded.

As I read it, there are 5 candidates elected already and 4 candidates not yet declared to be elected, but with 9 vacancies to be filled, it seems the following 9 persons will get elected in the end:

• The quota is 2476 votes to get elected.

Candidates Elected so far are shown in bold blue:

• Jim Clark (Greens),

• Juliet Arkwright (Liberal) (her No 2 David Stranger is still in the hunt, with 2135 transferred preference votes)

• Paul Tuddenham is still in the chase, with 2006 preference votes

• Ken Halstead (Independent) is in.

• Larry Whipper (Independent) is in. (Photo from Larry's Candidate Website)

• Graham McLaughlin (Labor) is in.

• Jim Mauger is still in the running with 2235 preference votes.

• Duncan Gair is still hopeful, on 2205 preference votes.

As I read the process, with Geraldine Turner having been excluded, her accumulated preference votes (1826) will now be redistributed. That process will determine who out of the remaining 4 candidates is next to get over the line.

But they will all probably make it (don't ask me quite how it all works - in fine detail). I don't know what happens with any votes which didn't award preferences all the way down the list. I suppose the system relies on people mostly voting above the line and "tickets" distributing those preferences all the way down the line.

There are 1826 votes to be distributed from Geraldine's vote, and only 1323 votes required to be redistributed to all those 4 candidates - enough to get each one of them elected. Remember that "excess votes" (over the quota of 2476) also get distributed. So, if Geraldine's votes favour Jim Mauger (for example) he would get over the line, then his spare preference votes (he only needs 241 more votes) would then get redistributed.

But as the list of "live candidates" is now so reduced, the "spare votes" have to go to one of the remaining three, then 2, then last person standing. That's how I think it works from this point onwards.

Source: http://www.lg.elections.nsw.gov.au/LgeFinalCountReports/Wingecarribee/Council/07_LG2008_%20WINGECARRIBEE_UNDIVIDED_ProgressiveTotal_Count065_Excluded_TURNER.pdf

So, as I read it, the big change from the last Council is the demise of the former Murray/Campbell-Jones Team, (Malcolm Murray and May King and Penny George). Nick C-J and Penny George did not stand for re-election. New Councillors (in this iteration) will be Ken Halstead (Independent) and the Liberals (Juliet Arkwright). David Stranger, the No. 2 on the Liberal Ticket will almost certainly be elected.

Jim Mauger, Paul Tuddenham and Duncan Gair will continue to function much as they have done in the past - except without the "leadership" of Malcolm Murray (and Nick C-J of course).

I imagine that Terry Oakes-Ash, President of the Southern Highlands Business Chamber Inc. will be moderately content with this arrangement. (Photo from SHBC website).
Larry Whipper and Jim Clark could still be sidelined easily enough by the 2 Liberals, Paul Tuddenham, Duncan Gair and Jim Mauger (on occasions) acting together to freeze out the "so-called Greenies". Remember it is a Council of 9 now, so a group of 5 is a simple majority.

Who will be Mayor of Wingecarribee Shire?

Despite his optimistic reading of the early poll results, Larry Whipper is not likely to get support to stand as Mayor.

Paul Tuddenham as former Deputy Mayor might make a strong claim for the top job, despite his relatively poor polling. Here is Paul, photographed at the Robertson Chamber of Commerce AGM in 2008.
On the basis of the Liberal Party's strong polling, Juliet Arkwright ought be able to make a bid for the position, with a No 2 Liberal to back her, and any combination of the others.

Its time for the new Councillors to get serious about doing deals - if they have not already done so!

I am sure the business community will already have worked out their preferred nominee for Mayor of Wingecarribee Shire Council, from September 2008 onwards.

My money is in Paul Tuddenham - but that is just an outsider's guess.

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POSTSCRIPT Wednesday morning, 24 September 2008.

This morning's ABC news carried the announcement of the new list of Councillors for the Wingecarribee Shire - just exactly as I predicted in yesterday's post.

Accordingly I will now publish a message I sent to all the elected candidates whose emails were published in the Candidates declarations to the NSW Electoral Commission.

I wish all the new Councillors and likely Councillors well.

As a citizen, I simply ask that they do their very best for the people of the Shire, and do not allow perceived business interests to drive the entire agenda for the next Council. I hope that you will give priority to services for the citizens.

The General Manager and those Councillors in the new Council who were members of the last Council ought hang their collective heads in shame, especially over the loss of vast cash reserves in speculative investments, and their push for the disastrously ill-advised "Leisure Centre" proposal (a white elephant which the people have fortunately rejected with scorn). Just imaging if the Poll result had come out Yes:Yes, on September 13. How on earth would the cowboys who were proposing it have looked us in the eyes, in the light of the collapse of the world economy since that date.

We need a change in attitude from day one of the new Council.

Let us have government for the people of the Wingecarribee, by the people of the Wingecarribee - for a change.

By the way, I think senior members of the Council staff ought live in the Shire - for starters - to show some confidence in their own Administration, and to show some solidarity with the people they are meant to serve.

Early Election results - Wingecarribee Shire

Early results are as follows:
(note - as the figures keep changing - these are only preliminary figures.

Readers my check the latest figures for themselves by visiting the following URL:

http://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/result.aspx?areaname=wingecarribee

Group Votes 15% 326 Group votes ARKWRIGHT, Juliet. Liberals 2% 43 personal votes

Group Votes 10% 354 Group votes CLARK, Jim. Greens 2 % 68 personal votes

Group Votes 10% 376 Group votes McLAUGHLIN, Graham ALP 1 personal votes 47 (later votes indicate Labor is slipping below the magic quote figure - but they are still looking strong.

Group Votes 6% 205 Group votes WHIPPER, Larry IND 2% personal votes 85 (Larry is being preferenced by Theo, so he is OK). So much for running a "principled campaign", when he is prepared to cross to the "dark side" to spoil Malcolm Murray and Duncan Gair's positions.

Group Votes 6% 201 Group votes TURNER, Geraldine Save the Highlands 2% 57 personal votes (her position is weakening as votes trickle in).

Group Votes 5% 233 Group votes MAUGER, Jim IND 2% personal votes 72

Group Votes 5% 224 Group votes HALSTEAD, Ken 3% personal votes 145

Group Votes 4% 172 Group votes TUDDENHAM, Paul IND 2% personal votes 70

Group Votes 4% 171 Group votes GAIR, Duncan IND 3% personal votes 121

Group Votes 3% 151 Group votes MURRAY, Malcolm IND 1% personal votes 28

Ungrouped ONISFOROU, Theo IND 4% personal votes 162

• With 9 candidates to be elected, my understanding is that a "quota" is 10% plus 1 vote (of formal votes cast on the day). So, roughly speaking 10% is the magic figure for candidates to aim for.
• Liberals, Greens and Labor are looking assured of a first round seat (without distribution of preferences). Labor's position is weakening, but they got a strong early start, and are still looking pretty good.
  
• There will be a scramble for trickle down preferences from smaller groups for the remaining 6 positions on Council.
• 7596 Total Formal Votes counted (at about 10:30 pm)
• Residential and Non-residential Electors enrolled on 4 August 2008: 31,094

These are early figures only, but on this basis, it is clearly a strong showing for the Liberal Party, led by Juliet Arkwright. Indeed I would be so bold as to suggest that she might well be positioned to assume the position of Mayor of Wingecarribee Shire, with such a strong vote for her group. But of course, such a position is determined by collectives of the Councillors, and who owes whom a favour, etc. So, my guess is that the next most likely candidate would be Larry Whipper.

As far as individual polling is concerned, to my eyes, the stand out is Ken Halstead, who has gathered 5% for his team, but a very strong 3% for himself individually.

Theo, who was really only running as a spoiler against Malcolm Murray and Duncan Gair, is probably content with their relatively poor showings, and his own reasonable 4% personal vote. His votes are expected to transfer to Larry Whipper, which is somewhat ironic.

Larry's Whipper's group will be preferenced by Theo, so he looks assured of getting elected.

The Save the Highlands group (led by Geraldine Turner) might pick up some preferences from any spare votes of the Greens, as, both groups were strongly against land sales and the uncontrolled push for development favoured by the last Council's pro-development groups.

I expect a tight exchange of preferences between previous Councillors Malcolm Murray and Paul Tuddenham, Duncan Gair, and on that basis, I would expect that one of those three will get elected (i.e., one will just scrape in). It is even possible that as they were all in Council previously, their names will attract lower-order preference votes, or flow-on preferences from groups, two could possibly get in on their name recognition. Of the three Malcolm Murray's position is weakest.

Jim Mauger is looking shaky, I would say, although he was the very last member elected last time, so a flow-through to him is still possible. He has a high profile, especially on anti-corruption issues (which is pretty popular right now.

I would say that Ken Halstead is looking a reasonable chance, but whether his aggressive style will mean that he has not secured enough 2nd, 3rd or 4th preference votes, or flow-on votes from other groups remains to be seen.

To my eyes, the big loser on the night looks to be Malcolm Murray, as he has been backed by a very strong advertising campaign, and seemingly is the preferred candidate of certain business groups. May King ran a relatively low key campaign and has seemingly disappeared out of sight.

As with all polling results, on needs to know where the count comes from, so it is possible that the early votes come from small rural booths, which would be expected to favour Greens and the Larry Whipper team. Whether they can hold that popularity in Mittagong and Bowral remains to be seen.

Rooster One Day, Feather Duster The Next.

Matt Brown, Member for Kiama has been sacked (or has resigned) as Police Minister, after the leaking of a story about a party he supposedly held in his Parliament House Office on Budget night. In fact, he was apparently sacked for being less than frank with the Premier, when first questioned about the incident. He supposedly denied the details about inappropriate behaviour, but Mr Rees checked with other sources, then fronted Mr Brown again, who then confessed (supposedly). At that point, he was supposedly sacked by Mr Rees for not coming clean in the first place.
"It appears the leaking of the story was timed to either discredit the Minister who was promoted on Monday to the police portfolio or to destabilise Mr Rees." (Source: Sydney Daily Telegraph website.)

The Age website was more direct - allowing you to join the dots, as it were:

• "Mr Rees .... refused to speculate who may have leaked the story, and rebuffed suggestions it could have been Frank Sartor, whom Mr Rees dumped from the cabinet. "It would disappoint me, but I don't believe that's Frank Sartor's style. He's a more direct person than that."

• "Mr Rees said he was not aware of a meeting yesterday between Mr Sartor and News Ltd journalist Imre Salusinszky, who broke the story. "It would disappoint me [if Mr Sartor had leaked the story], but I have got no idea what Frank was talking about to Imre [Salusinszky]."

Well, Mr Rees, The Body Politic's resident graphic artist can show you his conclusion.

Frank Sartor, a proverbial Feather Duster himself, after being sacked last week, is showing Matt the tricks of the trade.

Aaah, such is the way of NSW Politics.

It is by being quiet and polite we allow ourselves to be ignored

Dear oh dear.

Gone is the famous: "Love to Grow: Grow to Love" motto I used have as my signature block.

It might return one day.

However, we face Council selling off bits of Public Parks all around the Wingecarribee Shire. The NSW Government is destroying our Rivers and Aquifers either through their own work (SCA) or by allowing the Coal Miners to do it, while accepting huge Part 3A payments. Wollongong Council is revealed to be as corrupt as we always felt it was. Shellharbour Council is even less amenable to environmental concerns than Wollongong (and that is saying something). NSW Labor Party politicians in the Illawarra region are said to have accepted "campaign donations" from developers (Can that be true, Matt?, David?, Noreen?)

So I have changed my signature block.

THE NSW GOVERNMENT AND THE WINGECARRIBEE SHIRE COUNCIL
ARE SCREWING US OVER..........REMEMBER THIS:
"BY BEING QUIET AND POLITE WE ALLOW OURSELVES TO BE IGNORED"

Delusional Liberals rage at Howard .... but he was not alone.

It is fun to watch the Liberal Party trying to tear itself apart. And even funnier to see them all blaming John Howard. But I have a word for them (and the Labor Party). The last Government surrounded itself with "Yes Men", Toadies and sycophants. Nobody was providing the "Frank and Fearless Advice" which was the hallmark of the traditional Public Service.

Everybody was desperate to read the mind of the person above them, and to tell that person what they wanted to hear. And I speak of this pattern right down into the middle and lower ranks of the Public Service. This is the true meaning of the Hans Christian Andersen's Fairy Tale - of the "Emperor's New Clothes" - where all the courtiers were too weak, too beholden to the Emperor, to tell him what was as plain as the nose on his face, (or elsewhere, in that case).

"Children Overboard" is my supreme case in point, but just one of many examples. Right through to the David Hicks Case, the AWB Scandal, and the Dr Haneef case. People who knew the truth were rewarded for hiding the facts. The AWB scandal is possibly the largest ticking bomb, still buried within the Fairyland World of the Dept. of Foreign Affairs. Lets hope someone finds the moral fibre to stand up and tell the truth - at last.

From Day One (today) the Labor Party must ensure that they go back to that old principle of good governance - that Politicians and Public Service all provide "Frank and Fearless Advice". Otherwise, they will be destined to repeat the recent history of the Liberal Party Government.

---

But let us look at the Liberals for just another moment - for it is such fun.

Michelle Grattan, writing in "The Age" this morning has some wonderful quotes:

• "And, as anger mounted in the party towards John Howard, Peter Costello's father-in-law, Peter Coleman, declared "Howard's egomania" had blocked Mr Costello's "great promise". Mr Coleman, a former Liberal MP who writes a column for the ABC website, said Mr Howard had "a fatal flaw which brought him low and devastated his party. It is his colossal egotism."

And on Tony Abbott's withdrawal from the race for Liberal Party Leadership...

• "Mr Abbott described it as the "last supper at the Lodge for quite some time".

DJW writes: Typical Tony, Catholic mythology confused with myopia. No Tony, it is not "the Last Supper at the Lodge" - just the last one YOU are likely to be invited to. But that is a measure of nothing, when it comes to history, Tony. As they say: "Why is it all about you, Tony?".

• And Tony Abbott again: "I was a member of John Howard's praetorian guard, you might say. I always regarded myself as the honorary life president of the John Howard fan club."

DJW writes: Nice quote Tony. Thanks for that. We shall file that one away, if you don't mind.

Bloody Idiot.

He displays a lack of judgment, right to the bitter end.

Its as good as his "People Skills" quote from a couple of days before.

The Sunrise of Kevin 07

Well, you waited for it - and here it is.

After 11 and a half years of darkness, with barely a glimmer of the "Light on the Hill", here is the Sunrise of Kevin 07.It might not be quite what you longed for all those years. It is smaller, smarter, certainly has a more radiant smile than the previous false dawns you envisaged (the Beazley, Crean, Beazley, Latham models). And this one comes with a Chinese sound-track, as a bonus tape.

Just wait ands see if those clouds burn off, or turn into a self-destructive thunderstorm. Lets hope not.

*****

POST-SCRIPT: My friend Auriel sent me this photo. I am sure she won't mind me posting it. Dedicated Canberran "True Believers" obviously celebrating the Rudd Labor Victory on Saturday evening.

Well done to them and all of the other "Warriors for Democracy" whose dedication helped remove the "Government of Shame" on 24 November 2007.

Blog closed and deleted

I had a Blog which ran for more than a year and a half, which most recently carried the name "Rudd for PM - Beazley for GG (maybe)". It started out as "When will Kim Beazley resign?"

The "maybe" was added some time ago, after it became Kim Beazley was partaking in an early retirement from public office, (while still on the public payroll).

Well, tonight I have taken down that entire Blog - as I am afraid I no longer believe in where Kevin 07 is taking the Labor Party.

The latest proposal for watering down of the Labor Party's IR proposals is the last straw.

See what Miss Eagle thinks - on her Blog (today). Miss Eagle is an experienced industrial representative (former union official). She knows how this stuff works, in the real world (or doesn't work). If she is calling for changes to policy, its because she is aware that what is proposed is just rubbish policy.

*****

Australia needs the Labor Party to stand up for what it is meant to believe in.

Gutless is as Gutless does.

Peter Garrett was whining hopelessly a few days ago, saying, in effect, when will people realise that I am a member of the Labor Party, and am following its policies? Leave me alone - I am no longer a rock singer. What he should have said was "I am no longer a political activist". I'll leave you alone, Peter. As Joh Bjelke-Petersen used say: "Don't you worry about that!"

Its "Sell-out City" at Labor Party HQ, these days.

My response is to cancel and delete that old Blog (which I had not added to since about February or March - such was my lack of enthusiasm for "the Rudd Cause"). But now I have gone the whole hog, and deleted it entirely - because having the title up on my side bar was becoming an embarrassment. I no longer believe in that cause - because Kevin 07 appears not to believe in the Labor Party's heritage and traditions.

Howard "Old, Desperate and Sneaky"

Hey, its not my wording - its straight from the Sunday Telegraph.
In fact it is a screaming headline, on Page One.

And even Glen Milne (the journalist involved) can claim, as he does, that these are the conclusions from a poll done by the Labor Party, but "obtained by" the Sunday Telegraph.

Cute expression that one: not "leaked to", but "obtained by".

I suggest that you read the full article (use link above).

*****

I must say, I am surprised that the Labor Party would so obviously release something as potentially damaging to Howard, vis-a-vis Costello. They must also have polling which tells them they are even more likely to win against Costello than Howard. Risky gamble, that one, I think.

Howard is definitely "on the nose". While he is sneaky, and tricky, he is definitely not able to experience a "honeymoon" effect, which could just happen with Costello, should the Liberals decide to dump Howard prior to the election.

*****

Now here is an interesting challenge for crikey.com.au

Normally they would headline this story - in tomorrow's edition. They love all this political controversy, and internecine Liberal Party politics, especially Costello stories (they usually refer to him as "The Smirk").

But the article is written by Glen Milne, who is memorable for his "apparent assault" on Crikey's founder Stephen Mayne, at a televised Walkey Awards ceremony earlier in the year - on account of Milne's obvious dissatisfaction with Mayne's entitlement to the award he was given. The link above takes you to the Age's report of the Awards, and photo and discussion of the "incident".

You can even follow this link to see it all, over and over again, on YouTube

How forgiving is Stephen Mayne? We shall see tomorrow.

Welfare "reform" madness.

On Saturday 14 July 2007, both the Liberal Party (Government) and the Labor Party (Opposition) announced eerily similar "Welfare reforms". Both policies are equally unrealistic and nonsensical (in my humble opinion).

In essence, both parties promise the Centrelink will monitor child welfare, assessing school attendance by children, and then will "punish" negligent parents (whose kids do not attend school), by garnisheeing some of their child support benefits (or other benefits), and then will ensure that the money which is withheld from their "benefits" is then used to pay for food, or electricity bills, or other needs of the family.

The idea is that this will withdraw income from negligent parents to prevent them from using the funds intended for child welfare, from being squandered on alcohol, gambling or other such indulgent expenses. I can see why a desperate Government might be panicked into taking this stand - but, but - Hello?

When did the Government ever have these kinds of powers - to decide who will spend what, on whatever bills?

How can Centrelink, which is already overstretched, possibly cope with this extra function? How on earth can Centrelink, which does not have those kind of policing staff at present, possibly be expected to fulfil this task?

Centrelink is not noted for having good links with the State welfare agencies (DOCS, etc), State Police and Educational authorities. Even those State agencies are not empowered to make these investigations , let alone buy food for needy kids, or supervise them getting to school.

The whole idea is crazy, totally crazy, and unrealistic. Indeed I would go so far as to say that it is a policy which is totally antithetical to the supposed "laissez-faire" political philosphy of the Liberal Party. The word "hypocrites" springs to mind.

(This critique of course, is temporarily ignoring - only temporarily - the outrages which the Howard Government is currently inflicting upon Aboriginal Families in Australia).

These dual policy announcements constitute a move towards Totalitarianism which would have made the infamous Ceauşescu regime of Romania blush. Remember media stories of all those abandoned children in orphanages, hospitals and asylums in the failed state of Romania, under Nicolae Ceauşescu? Can you imagine Australia accepting such outrages? Well, watch this space, folks. "Parents Rights" just evaporated in Australia.

In saying that, I am not sticking up for negligent parents - just asking quite how the Government is going to decide which of the families of ordinary Australians meets that definition? And, if we do, is it a permanent state of affairs, or is there a scale of negligence, or incompetence as parents, or are we to be judged, once and for all, by "Secret Agents from the Welfare"? Should we have a network of Informants - perhaps from the Tuckshop at school, or should the "nice ladies" from the "Harper Valley PTA" have a vote on our adequacy as parents?

The timing of two simultaneous policy announcements, and their similarity, smacks of heavy political espionage, and also a move towards "lowest common denominator" politics. It is a War on Welfare, to match the War on Terror.

It is going to be a bad lead up to the next election, folks.