Thursday, 6 September 2007

"The Final Cut" scenario?

Paul Kelly wrote a long opinion piece several days ago, and word has that if it were not for AP*ec, Howard would have been "tapped on the shoulder" by now. The article concludes:
"Howard’s response to the Newspoll was illuminating: he pledged to work harder. It was well intentioned but inadequate.
Howard can work as hard as he likes, but the problem transcends diligence and capability.
Howard’s formula is that he would stay leader only as long as his party wanted him.
The party is not going to depose Howard and Peter Costello is not going to challenge him. Howard’s leadership lies in his own hands.
For 12 years he has stayed Liberal leader because he judged correctly that he was the party’s best election winner. That was true in 1995 and it was true in 2006. But is it still true in September 2007?
What is the real message of the polls? Is it for Howard to bring on the election? Or is it that the public has closed its mind against him?
Howard has no intention of walking away from this battle because for him that would be an act of panic and cowardice.
But if the Liberal Party really believes the election is lost, then Howard must consider his responsibility as leader. He needs, at least, to re-examine his position and decide whether its logic remains valid.

Effectively Paul Kelly is doing the tapping on the shoulder himself (and he is not alone - someone in Crikey did much the same a few days ago, but I think that was Richard Farmer, who is an old buddy of Hawkie's, so Howard would take no notice). Paul Kelly is different.

Watch out for a resignation in the next week. My Blogging colleague, Miss Eagle has stated publicly that she wants Howard to stay on and face the people's judgement. If Paul Kelly's instinct is right, Howard might resign to "spend more time with his family" very soon (what a nasty thought!***) for while the Party is unlikely to challenge (how gutless are they?), Howard might be persuaded - after all, he said yesterday he was "listening to the people" (more or less), and he has always said he would stay as long as his Party needed him.
Kelly is saying they need you to go.

As I write, Paul Kelly is speaking on ABC Radio 702, (Sydney local Radio) with Richard Glover, saying that Costello is too weak, and the Party does not have enough confidence in him to bring on a challenge, so he is predicting a Howard-Rudd election. Miss Eagle would be pleased to hear that view.

I wonder, though?

*** Does anyone else recall the BBC TV series "House of Cards"?
That trilogy ended with the third series "The Final Cut" where the wife of the PM had developed into a powerful figure "in the background". She arranged for his personal body guard ("Corder") to ass** ass ** inate the (fictional) P* m. She knew the Leader needed to go out a hero, but could not work out how to achieve it himself. I wonder if the AP* ecian Se** curity scenarios included the "Fi** rst La** dy" as the Number One Threat?

If you didn't see the series, or think I am dreaming, read the three précis stories in Wikipedia.
Is Janette up to the role completed by her counterpart (Elizabeth Urquhart) from the TV series?

For Lit** tle Joh** nnie's sake, he had better hope not!
For a little light relief, let me add that there's more than enough "hardware" and "Hardheads" in Sydney right now.....
Mitre 10 is a large "ironmongers" store as one of my ancient uncles used say.
Hardhead is a common name for a species of Duck!
(Aythya australis )

No comments: